A deep dive into data from the 2020 and 2024 US elections from Cloudbet, a leading platform for crypto betting, reveals insights that may foreshadow November's outcome: the majority of crypto bettors continue to favor Republican candidate Donald Trump.
On November 3rd, 2020, the day of the US elections, Cloudbet witnessed the highest number of bets placed on US political markets. Incredibly, 84% of bets placed on the US Presidential election were for Donald Trump to win, compared to just 16% for the then-Democratic elect and current US President Joe Biden. Confidence in these bets, as reflected by the stake size, is also telling: bettors were staking almost $300 on average for Trump to become president, while those betting on Biden put down 37% less.
Ultimately, the majority bet was lost. However, the outcome of the 2020 election could be attributed to a weak voter turnout from the pro-crypto constituency. In contrast to 2020, Forbes reports that millions of crypto voters have emerged in 2024, expected to play a pivotal role in determining the upcoming vote.
Cloudbet Research (2024)
Today, the odds on Cloudbet have Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the clear favorites, with tight odds of 1.89 and 1.84, respectively. Other contenders face significantly steeper odds in the race for the US presidency. Republican Vice President-nominee JD Vance stands at 80.5, while former First Lady Michelle Obama sits at 100.
“How you bet doesn’t necessarily indicate how you vote," says a Cloudbet spokesperson, "But at the same time, fan allegiance is a strong predictor of betting patterns. Lakers fans are more likely to buck the odds when the Celtics are in town. The crypto landscape has shifted since, but the Democratic party's ambiguity regarding cryptocurrency regulation has alienated some crypto voters, hurting the DNC’s campaign for the Oval office.”
According to Coinbase research, 40% of all eligible voters for this year's election will be Gen Z and Millennials, disproportionately representing the pro-innovation, pro-crypto constituency. Additionally, 51% say they're likely to throw their weight behind a crypto-friendly candidate, which aligns with betting behavior data taken from Cloudbet research in 2020.
Cloudbet (2024)
While Trump took a pro-crypto stance early in his campaign, Harris’ senior policy advisor has only recently expressed support for pro-crypto policies and emerging technologies. The crypto community has shown mixed reactions to the Vice President’s campaign efforts, with some seeing this late response as an attempt to mend a strained relationship with the sector. How both parties appeal to crypto enthusiasts will be a key indicator for the future of American politics.
As the election unfolds, platforms like Cloudbet provide a unique lens into the evolving relationship between crypto, politics, and the behavior of this increasingly influential voter demographic.
About Cloudbet: Founded in 2013, Cloudbet is the world’s leading crypto casino and sportsbook. With a focus on providing a secure, fast, and reliable betting experience, Cloudbet offers a wide range of games and betting options, leveraging the advantages of cryptocurrency to deliver unmatched value to its users.
For more information, visit Cloudbet.com.